Dynamical Approach in studying GJR-GARCH (Q,P) Models with Application

Main Article Content

Nooruldeen A. Noori
Azher A. Mohammad

Abstract

This paper deals with finding stationarity Condition of GJR-GARCH(Q,P) model by using a local linearization technique in order to reduce this non-linear model to a linear difference equation with constant coefficients and then obtain the stationarity condition  via a characteristic equation.


Finally we apply the obtained stationarity conditions of GJR-GARCH(Q,P) model to a real data that represents a monthly Brent Crude oil prices at closing in dollars for period (JUN. 1989-DES. 2018) and we find that GJR-GARCH(3,1) is the best model according to AIC and BIC information criteria.

Article Details

How to Cite
Nooruldeen A. Noori, & Azher A. Mohammad. (2022). Dynamical Approach in studying GJR-GARCH (Q,P) Models with Application. Tikrit Journal of Pure Science, 26(2), 145–156. https://doi.org/10.25130/tjps.v26i2.131
Section
Articles

References

[1] Bollerslv, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. journal of Econometrics, 31(3):307-327.

[2] Engle, R.F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates variance of United Kingdom Inflation. journal of Econometrica, 50 (4): 987–1008.

[3] Francq, C. and Zakoian, J. M. (2019).GARCH Models: Structure. Statistical Inference and Financial Applications.2nd edn., John Wiley and Ltd Publication:492 pp.

[4] GLOSTEN, L.R. ; JAGANNATHAN, R. and RUNKLE, D.E. (1993). On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks. The Journal of Finance, 485 (5): 1779–1801.

[5] Mohammad , A.A. and Salim, A.J. (2007). Stability of Logistic Autoregressive model. Qatar Univesity of scince journal, 27:17–28.

[6] Mohammad, A.A. and Gannam, A.K. (2010). Stability of Cauchy Autoregressive model. journal of pure and applied scince, Salahaddin University Hawler (special Issue):52-62.

[7] Mohammad, A.A. and Ghaffar, M.K. (2016). Astudy on stability of Conditional variance for GARCH models with application. Tikrit journal of pure scince, 21 (4):160-169.

[8] Mohammad, A.A. and Mudhir, A.A. (2018). Dynamical approach in studying stability condition of exponential (GARCH) models. Journal of King Saud University - Science, Vol.32 (1):272-278.

[9] Mohammad, A.A. and Salim, A.J. (1996). The Analysis and Modeling of the time series of annual mean temprature in Mosul City. Rafidain Journal of Science,7 (1): 37-48.

[10] Nelson, D.B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach”, Econometrica, 59 (2):347-370.

[11] Ozaki, T. (1985). Non-linear time series models and Dynamical systems. Handbook of statestics. Hannen et al. Elsevier science publishers Rv ,5 (S):25–83.

[12] Wiphatthanananthakula, C. and Sriboonchittab, S. (2010). The Comparison among ARMA-GARCH, -EGARCH, -GJR. The Thailand Econometrics Society journal, 2 (2):140–148.

[13] Yuan Chen, M. (2013).Time series Analysis: Conditional Volatility models. Dep. of Finance. National chung Hsing University: 1-42 pp